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07/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They are often the brashest of players, but it seems these days those who play with a swagger elevate their game and by nature their teams to new heights. Whether they go by wide receiver, flanker or any other name, these players can change the momentum of a game with one play.
Here are the top wideouts heading into the 2010 season.
A.J. GREEN, GEORGIA
Perhaps the top "difference maker" on the outside in all of the FBS, Green can do it all. At 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, there isn't much to dislike about this Bulldog. Plenty of speed and great hands separate him from the rest of field. A two-time All-SEC First Team selection, Green is coming off a 2009 campaign in which he hauled in 53 balls for 808 yards and six touchdowns. Those numbers were slightly off his amazing freshman season (56 receptions for 963 yards and eight TDs), but a lot of that had to do with injuries and the Bulldogs' lack of consistency as a whole last year (8-5). If Georgia is to return to SEC glory in 2010, expect Green to be the main reason why.
MICHAEL FLOYD, NOTRE DAME
The definition of a big play wideout. The Irish have something special in Floyd, who will probably jump ship to the NFL following this season. With great size (6-3, 220) and athleticism, it is awfully tough to contain him down the field. Last season, he played in just seven games before breaking his collarbone, and still finished with 44 receptions for 795 yards and nine TDs. There will be a new QB in South Bend to go with a new coaching staff and new system, but if Brian Kelly is to bring the Irish back to prominence, Floyd is the kind of building block to start with.
JONATHAN BALDWIN, PITTSBURGH
Showed immediate promise as a freshman in 2008, averaging 22.4 yards per catch on 18 receptions. Baldwin took it to a higher level as a sophomore, grabbing 57 balls for 1,111 yards and eight TDs. At 6-5, 225 pounds, he has the size that keeps NFL scouts drooling. Whether he takes the next step and becomes a household name this year depends a lot on the quarterback situation at Pittsburgh. Baldwin enjoyed great success with a veteran signal-caller last season and will need to form a solid foundation early on with the Panthers' new QB if he is to put up big numbers again. Pittsburgh will once again rely heavily on the run, but when the team goes vertical, Baldwin will be the target more often than not.
JULIO JONES, ALABAMA
Yes, the Crimson Tide won the national championship last season, but it took the extremely gifted Jones quite awhile to get going and be a regular contributor. The 6-4, 211-pounder struggled with injuries in 2009, after being named the SEC Freshman of the Year and earning All-American honors in 2008. His 24 receptions for 331 yards and three TDs this past season certainly aren't the kind of numbers that jump out at you, but, make no mistake, when he's healthy, he rivals the best in the game. The Crimson Tide have some holes to fill this year, but the offensive side of the ball will remain potent. A devastating ground game led by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram should open things up for Jones down the field, providing he is able to suit up all season long.
RYAN BROYLES, OKLAHOMA
Broyles won't scare defenders with his size (5-11, 183), but still creates mismatches. The Sooners had a down year in 2009, but Broyles didn't. Despite a quarterback change resulting in the loss of the then-reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Broyles still put up huge numbers, hauling in a school-record 89 balls for 1,120 yards and a school-record-tying 15 TDs, dwarfing his 2008 season, when he set the school record for receiving yards by a freshman (687). The OU offense will be much better this season with a "veteran" sophomore QB under center. The Sooners will return to national prominence in 2010 and Broyles will have a big hand in that.
JAMES CLEVELAND, HOUSTON
Cleveland has finally found a home at Houston. A former Iowa Hawkeye who spent a season at Trinity Valley Community College, the 6-1, 205-pounder settled in with the Cougars last season and formed an immediate connection with standout QB Case Keenum while being tabbed the 2009 Conference USA Newcomer of the Year. Did Cleveland benefit from the system in Houston? Who cares. His first year couldn't have gone much better, as he caught just about everything thrown his way, resulting in 104 receptions for 1,214 yards and 14 TDs. He has the kind of size to be effective at the next level and another big year in the FBS ranks could have him climb the draft boards at a rapid pace. Houston will be in the hunt for the Conference USA crown, and look for the Keenum-to-Cleveland connection to be front and center along the way.
JERMAINE KEARSE, WASHINGTON
There hasn't been much to cheer about as a Washington fan the last couple of years, but the potential of the 6-2, 200-pound Kearse is certainly reason for optimism in 2010. An All-Pac-10 Second Team selection as a sophomore, Kearse led the team in receptions (50), receiving yards (866) and TDs (eight) in 2009. He has one of the game's top quarterbacks in Jake Locker back in the fold, so look for another increase in numbers. Whether his production helps the rebuilding Huskies add to their modest five-win total from 2009 remains to be seen, but the talented Kearse must be accounted for at all times.
JAMES RODGERS, OREGON STATE
This talented Beaver is overshadowed by his little brother (running back Jacquizz Rodgers) in Corvallis, but is certainly a game-changer in his own right. A versatile player, the elder Rodgers is one of the Pac-10's elite wideouts, who doesn't mind getting involved in the ground game, return game, or as a blocker, despite his diminutive size (5-7, 188). Last season, Rodgers was an All-Pac-10 First Team selection after setting a school record with 91 receptions, going for 1,034 yards with nine TDs. He also set OSU's single- season record for all-purpose yardage (2,328). A tough non-conference slate that includes TCU and Boise State may hinder the team's ability to exceed last season's eight-win total, but with the ultra-talented Rodgers' brothers on the field, anything is possible.
GREG SALAS, HAWAII
Playing in the WAC usually won't help a player in terms of national attention. Add to that the fact that he plays well off the mainland at the University of Hawaii and you can understand how this talented wideout has gone overlooked week-in and week-out. As a junior in 2009, Salas was among the nation's leaders, finishing with 106 receptions for 1,590 yards and eight TDs, leading the WAC in both receptions and receiving yards per game (fourth in the nation at 122.3 ypg). He plays the slot position for the Warriors and the 6-2 California native is as reliable an outlet as there is in FBS. Hawaii finished just under .500 last year (6-7) and if the team is to earn a winning season in 2010, you can bet Salas' fingerprints will be all over it.
TITUS YOUNG, BOISE STATE
A key cog for one of college football's most prolific offenses, Young burst on the scene as a junior in 2009, hauling in 79 balls for 1,041 yards and 10 TDs and becoming a go-to-guy for All-American QB Kellen Moore. Having Austin Pettis (63 balls for 855 yards and 14 TDs) on the other side doesn't hurt either, but Young is much more versatile, scoring three more TDs on the ground and another two on kick returns, while earning All-WAC First Team honors in 2009 as both a receiver and return specialist. What Young lacks in size (5-11, 170), he more than makes up for in playmaking ability. The Broncos could finish their stay in the WAC (they're moving to the Mountain West in 2011) with a national championship run. Look for Young to be a difference maker on a weekly basis.
OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Austin Pettis (Boise State), Deonte Thompson (Florida), Leonard Hankerson (Miami-Florida), Alshon Jeffrey (South Carolina), Devier Posey (Ohio State), Niles Paul (Nebraska).
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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